The Coldcard incident is still unfolding but the lesson is already clear
Over the past few days, the Coldcard failure has moved from an alarming report about a cluster of drained wallets to a much broader custody event.
Read the analysisResearch on the impacts of emerging technologies
Decisions before the evidence settles
We support and conduct research on how AI, Bitcoin, and other emerging technologies interact with governance and policy - then translate evidence into clearer choices for decision-makers
How FIR works
From emerging signal to decision
Evidence becomes useful when pathways to valued outcomes become clear
- 01DetectWhat has changed - and how certain is the signal?
- 02InterpretWho faces pressure to respond, and what do they value?
- 03AssessWhich capacities and rules enable, block, or redirect action?
Current posts
Explore ideas & opinions on how we shape and adjust to the impacts of change
AI impact framework
The aim of this paper is to give researchers and policymakers a common map for connecting partial measures of AI’s economic effects without treating technical capability, adoption, and public benefit as if they were the same thing.
Read the analysis
When AI-driven science outpaces its institutions
AI also changes the economics of scientific attention. Where generating plausible hypotheses becomes cheaper, the scarce resource shifts toward judgment.
Read the analysisResearch areas
One institutional lens, applied across changing systems.
FIR works across domains where technical capability is moving faster than the categories used to govern, measure, and value its effects.
01
02
03
04
AI, institutions, and economic adaptation
Measurement architectures, adaptation demand, labor and organizational adjustment, and anticipatory governance.
Bitcoin, digital assets, & money
Bitcoin, payment systems, custody, protocol governance, and the institutional consequences of digital scarcity.
Energy and compute systems
Flexible loads, AI infrastructure, grid integration, environmental performance, and resource constraints.
Governance under technological change
Institutional latency, policy design, scenario analysis, and adaptation when evidence remains incomplete.
Advisory
Clarity for decisions that cannot wait for settled evidence
FIR works with organizations and individuals facing consequential choices under uncertainty
Book a free 30-minute callCommissioned research
Focused studies, technical syntheses, and decision-ready reports.
Policy and regulatory analysis
Mechanism-led assessment of rules, incentives, and implementation risks.
Technology and governance assessment
Institutional due diligence for emerging systems and infrastructure.
Scenarios and research agendas
Structured exploration of pathways, evidence gaps, and strategic options.
Forthcoming book
When Policy Falls Behind: Bitcoin, AI, and the Governance of Fast Systems
A forthcoming book about how fast technological systems outrun the institutions expected to govern them: download draft chapters here.
Get publication updatesAbout FIR
Independent research, built for use.
Futures Insight Research is an independent research and advisory practice based in British Columbia. It develops rigorous, usable analysis for organizations navigating technological and institutional change.
About Futures Insight Research