I recently led the writing for a Satoshi Action Education report, coauthored with Eric Peterson and Dennis Porter, entitled "Strategic portfolio allocations for financial resilience: a counterfactual analysis of Bitcoin and gold in US state Rainy Day Funds
Eric had the idea for this project, which asked 'what if' US state rainy day funds (RDFs) had allocated up to 10% of the RDF to Bitcoin and gold in 2018? He works with state lawmakers and policy analysts on a daily basis at Satoshi Action, and this was something that he thought was crucial for those individuals to understand.
The centerpiece of the report is a table that, for all 50 states, shows the inflation-adjusted (real) return they would attained if they had allocated to Bitcoin.
In the report I only had room to include a few charts for specific states. Below, I have posted summary charts for all 50 states. These are based on the assumption that they would have allocated to gold and/or Bitcoin in January 2018 and continued to invest or sell, depending on annual RDF flows, to the end of 2024.
Scroll down the post to see the alphabetical list. Note that all numbers are inflation-adjusted, with a January 1, 2018 baseline.
Each chart shows four combinations of investments (for clarity I didn't try to squeeze all combos in):
100% EFFR / 0% gold / 0% Bitcoin: Effective Federal Funds Rate (EFFR) was our proxy for the ‘risk-free’ return from treasuries; 90% EFFR / 5% gold / 5% Bitcoin; 90% EFFR / 10% gold / 0% Bitcoin; 90% EFFR / 0% gold / 10% Bitcoin. State performance in the counterfactual analysis varies : the states showing the largest gains tended to have their hypothetical allocations to Bitcoin happen early and during bear markets, when Bitcoin price was relatively low, and outflows during bull market peaks.
Alabama Alabama . See the Satoshi Action Education working paper for calcuation procedures: https://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=5104576 Alaska Alaska . See the Satoshi Action Education working paper for calcuation procedures: https://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=5104576 Arizona Arizona . See the Satoshi Action Education working paper for calcuation procedures: https://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=5104576 Arkansas Arkansas . See the Satoshi Action Education working paper for calcuation procedures: https://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=5104576 California California . See the Satoshi Action Education working paper for calcuation procedures: https://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=5104576 Colorado Colorado . See the Satoshi Action Education working paper for calcuation procedures: https://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=5104576 Connecticut Connecticut . See the Satoshi Action Education working paper for calcuation procedures: https://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=5104576 Delaware Deleware . See the Satoshi Action Education working paper for calcuation procedures: https://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=5104576 Florida Florida . See the Satoshi Action Education working paper for calcuation procedures: https://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=5104576 Georgia Georgia . See the Satoshi Action Education working paper for calcuation procedures: https://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=5104576 Hawaii Hawaii . See the Satoshi Action Education working paper for calcuation procedures: https://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=5104576 Idaho Idaho . See the Satoshi Action Education working paper for calcuation procedures: https://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=5104576 Illinois Illinois . See the Satoshi Action Education working paper for calcuation procedures: https://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=5104576 Indiana Indiana . See the Satoshi Action Education working paper for calcuation procedures: https://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=5104576 Iowa Iowa . See the Satoshi Action Education working paper for calcuation procedures: https://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=5104576 Kansas Kansas . See the Satoshi Action Education working paper for calcuation procedures: https://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=5104576 Kentucky Kentucky . See the Satoshi Action Education working paper for calcuation procedures: https://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=5104576 Louisiana Louisiana . See the Satoshi Action Education working paper for calcuation procedures: https://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=5104576 Maine Maine . See the Satoshi Action Education working paper for calcuation procedures: https://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=5104576 Maryland Maryland . See the Satoshi Action Education working paper for calcuation procedures: https://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=5104576 Massachusetts Massachusetts . See the Satoshi Action Education working paper for calcuation procedures: https://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=5104576 Michigan Michigan . See the Satoshi Action Education working paper for calcuation procedures: https://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=5104576 Minnesota Minnesota . See the Satoshi Action Education working paper for calcuation procedures: https://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=5104576 Mississippi Mississippi . See the Satoshi Action Education working paper for calcuation procedures: https://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=5104576 Missouri Missouri . See the Satoshi Action Education working paper for calcuation procedures: https://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=5104576 Montana Montana . See the Satoshi Action Education working paper for calcuation procedures: https://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=5104576 Nebraska Nebraska . See the Satoshi Action Education working paper for calcuation procedures: https://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=5104576 Nevada Nevada . See the Satoshi Action Education working paper for calcuation procedures: https://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=5104576 New Hampshire New Hampshire . See the Satoshi Action Education working paper for calcuation procedures: https://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=5104576 New Jersey New Jersey . See the Satoshi Action Education working paper for calcuation procedures: https://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=5104576 New Mexico New Mexico . See the Satoshi Action Education working paper for calcuation procedures: https://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=5104576 New York New York . See the Satoshi Action Education working paper for calcuation procedures: https://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=5104576 North Carolina North Carolina . See the Satoshi Action Education working paper for calcuation procedures: https://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=5104576 North Dakota North Dakota . See the Satoshi Action Education working paper for calcuation procedures: https://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=5104576 Ohio Ohio . See the Satoshi Action Education working paper for calcuation procedures: https://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=5104576 Oklahoma Oklahoma . See the Satoshi Action Education working paper for calcuation procedures: https://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=5104576 Oregon Oregon . See the Satoshi Action Education working paper for calcuation procedures: https://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=5104576 Pennsylvania Pennsylvania . See the Satoshi Action Education working paper for calcuation procedures: https://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=5104576 Rhode Island Rhode Island . See the Satoshi Action Education working paper for calcuation procedures: https://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=5104576 South Carolina South Carolina . See the Satoshi Action Education working paper for calcuation procedures: https://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=5104576 South Dakota South Dakota . See the Satoshi Action Education working paper for calcuation procedures: https://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=5104576 Tennessee Tennessee . See the Satoshi Action Education working paper for calcuation procedures: https://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=5104576 Texas Texas . See the Satoshi Action Education working paper for calcuation procedures: https://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=5104576 Utah Utah . See the Satoshi Action Education working paper for calcuation procedures: https://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=5104576 Vermont Vermont . See the Satoshi Action Education working paper for calcuation procedures: https://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=5104576 Virginia Virginia . See the Satoshi Action Education working paper for calcuation procedures: https://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=5104576 Washington Washington . See the Satoshi Action Education working paper for calcuation procedures: https://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=5104576 West Virginia West Virginia . See the Satoshi Action Education working paper for calcuation procedures: https://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=5104576 Wisconsin Wisconsin . See the Satoshi Action Education working paper for calcuation procedures: https://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=5104576 Wyoming Wyoming . See the Satoshi Action Education working paper for calcuation procedures: https://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=5104576
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